Forecasting of Solar Radiation using an Empirical Model
Abstract
Global demand for energy is increasing rapidly and natural energy resources such as oil, gas and uranium are declining due to the widespread diffusion and development of the industry in recent years. To cover energy needs, research is being conducted on renewable energy. One of the renewable energies that can meet the world's demand so far is solar energy, which is free and inexhaustible in most parts of the world, and it has become an economic source. In this article we will make a forecast of the empirical Campbell model which will allow us to estimate the daily global irradiation on a horizontal plane and to compare it with the results measured at the Adrar site. The results show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) less than 7%, the mean bias error does not exceed 3% in absolute value, relative RMSE does not exceed 7% and the correlation coefficient greater than 0.99 for the annual global radiation. It was concluded that this model could be used to predict the global solar radiation for Adrar site and for other sites with similar climatic conditions.
References
D. Benatiallah, A. Benatiallah, K. Bouchouicha and B. Nasri, "Models for Obtaining the Daily Global Solar Radiations in Clear Sky in Sahara", Advances in Science, Technology & Innovation (ASTI), Springer, 2017, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-70548-4_439.
J. Batlles et al.,"Empirical modeling of hourly direct irradiance by means of hourly global irradiance", Solar Energy, 2000.
A. Zaatri et al., "Evaluation of some mathematical models of solar radiation received by a ground collector", World Journal of Engineering, vol. 13, pp. 376 – 380, 2016.
T. Lealea et al., "Estimation of diffuse solar radiation in the north and far north of Cameroon", European Scientific Journal, vol. 9, 2013.
M. Mesri et al.,"Estimation du rayonnement solaire au sol par des modèles semi-empiriques", Revue des Energies Renouvelables, vol. 15, pp. 451 – 463, 2012.
D. Benatiallah, A. Benatiallah, K. Bouchouicha and B. Nasri, "Estimation of clear sky global solar radiation in Algeria", AIMS Energy, vol. 7, pp. 710–727, 2019.
F. Yettou et al., "Etude comparative de deux modèles de calcul du rayonnement solaire par ciel clair en Algérie", Revue des Energies Renouvelables, vol. 12, pp. 331 – 346, 2009.
M. Yaïche. et al.,"Estimation du rayonnement solaire global en Algérie pour différents types de ciel", Revue des Energies Renouvelables,vol. 13, pp. 683 – 695, 2010.
C. Gueymard ,"The sun’s total and spectral irradiance for solar energy applications and solar radiation models", Solar Energ, vol. 76 , pp. 423-453, 2014.
Badoud, A. Bond Graph Model for Fault Detection of Partial Shaded PV Array Considering Different Module Connection Schemes and Effects of Bypass Diodes. Algerian Journal of Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development, 2019, 1(1),41-59. https://doi.org/10.46657/ajresd.2019.1.1.5
Badoud A. MPPT Controller for PV Array under Partially Shaded Condition. Algerian Journal of Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development, 2019, 1(1),99-111. https://doi.org/10.46657/ajresd.2019.1.1.10
C. Gueymard, "A simple model of the atmospheric radiative transfer of sunshine: algorithms and performance assessment", Florida Solar Energy Center, 1995.
P. Ineichen,"Comparison of eight clear sky broadband models against 16 independent data banks", Solar Energy, vol. 80, pp. 468–478, 2006.
D. Benatiallah, A. Benatiallah, K. Bouchouicha, M. Hamouda, and B. Nasri, "An empirical model for estimating solar radiation in the Algerian Sahara", American Institute of Physics, 2018.
A. Lacis, JE. Hansen, "A parameterization of the absorption of solar radiation in the Earth’s atmosphere". J Atmos Sci, vol. 33, pp. 118–33, 1974.
Ashrae, "Handbook of fundamentals". Atlanta, Georgia: American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air-Conditioning Engineers, 1985.
M. Machler, "Parameterization of solar irradiation under clear skies", M.A.Sc. Thesis, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, 1983.
B. Liu, RC. Jordan, "The interrelationship and characteristic distribution of direct, diffuse and total solar radiation", Sol Energy, vol. 4, pp. 1–19, 1960.
RE Bird, RL. Hulstrom , "A simplified clear sky model for a direct and diffuse insolation on horizontal surface", SERI/TR-642-761. Goldon, Colorado: Solar Energy Research Institute, 1981.
Li. Huashan, Ma. Weibin, W. Xianlong, L. Yongwang, "Estimating monthly average daily diffuse solar radiation with multiple predictors: a case study", Renew Energy, vol. 36, pp. 44, 2011.
JA. Davies, "Validation of models for estimating solar radiation on horizontal surface", Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview (Ont.), IEA Task IX Final Report, 1988.
Y. Liu, Y. Zhou, D. Wang, Y. Wang, Y. Li, Y. Zhu, "Classification of solar radiation zones and general models for estimating the daily global solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in China", Energy Convers Manag, vol. 154, pp. 168–179, 2017.
D. Benatiallah, A. Harrouz, A. Benatiallah, M. Hamouda, "Development and Modeling of a Geographic Information System solar flux in Adrar, Algeria", International Journal of System Modeling and Simulation, vol. 1, pp. 15-19, 2016
Oudrane R, Hamouda M, Aour B. The Thermal Transfers of a Habitable Envelope in an Extremely Dry Area and These Effects on Thermal Comfort. Algerian Journal of Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development, 2019, 1(1),79-91. https://doi.org/10.46657/ajresd.2019.1.1.8
Y. El-Mghouchi et al.,"Comparison of three solar radiation models and their validation under all sky conditions – case study: Tetuan city in northern of Morocco", Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 58, pp. 1432–144, 2016.
G. Campbell, J. Norman, "An introduction to environmental biophysics", 2nd ed. New York: Springer; (ISBN 0-387-94937-2), 1998.
R. Stone, "Improved statistical procedure for the evaluation of solar radiation estimation Models", Solar Energy, vol. 5, pp. 289–91, 1993.
Algerian solar atlas Available at: http://www.cder.dz/IMG/pdf/Atlas_solaire_Algerien_CDER.pdf
Copyright (c) 2019 BENATIALLAH D et al.,
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The journal allow the author(s) to retain publishing rights without restrictions.
The journal allow the author(s) to hold the copyright without restrictions.